Artificial intelligence has reached a buzzword utopia as it seems everyone is talking about self-driving cars, delivery drones and virtual assistants with human-like "intelligence." Some believe this new era of AI will make the American Dream universally accessible, enabling early retirement in bucolic settings. Others are concerned about a greater inequality created by a jobless future.
Technological advancements have connected billions of people (and digitally divided the rest), merged real and virtual worlds and enabled our collaboration with robots - at least in the form of software that streamlines everyday tasks.
Yet, since the beginning of the third industrial revolution about 40 years ago, job insecurity has steadily increased as the life cycle of relevant skills has decreased (Blanchflower and Oswald, 2011).
This trend could continue with the AI-enabled fourth industrial revolution. While having the potential to significantly improve productivity, AI could dramatically reduce the need for workers and present serious challenges for healthcare industries, governments and individuals (Schwab, 2015).
Yet, since the beginning of the third industrial revolution about 40 years ago, job insecurity has steadily increased as the life cycle of relevant skills has decreased (Blanchflower and Oswald, 2011).
This trend could continue with the AI-enabled fourth industrial revolution. While having the potential to significantly improve productivity, AI could dramatically reduce the need for workers and present serious challenges for healthcare industries, governments and individuals (Schwab, 2015).
One option for reducing financial anxiety related to the decreased demand for human labor is to provide subsidies to every adult. A recent US survey found that 46% of people support the idea of a universal basic income, formulated as a "negative income tax" (Milton Friedman), guaranteed income (Martin Luther King Jr.) or annual cash grant (Charles Murray). The idea did not pass the vote in Switzerland, but is under consideration in India, Finland and Oakland, California. Earlier case studies - such as the Alaska Permanent Fund, established 40 years ago, has revealed unintended consequences: the program encouraged retirees to move to Alaska, squeezed wages, fostered addiction to "free money", and created a “consumption-frenzy” at local shops when the checks were distributed. Last month Alaska House voted to lower the dividend, and this could hit middle-income residents relying on it.
But even if the government provided a stable money supply, would it be easy to find a purpose in the jobless future?
Gig economy, volunteerism and citizen science could potentially provide such a purpose. But Uber-like platforms are built for "lone wolf" and low skilled kind of jobs, while collaborative research, in its current form, works best for environmental sciences. Besides, it increases expectations that research for the public good should be done by volunteers rather than paid professionals.
To prepare for the new automated future, we need completely new collaboration platforms that help master and utilize high level skills. We'll share our thoughts about it next time.
Gig economy, volunteerism and citizen science could potentially provide such a purpose. But Uber-like platforms are built for "lone wolf" and low skilled kind of jobs, while collaborative research, in its current form, works best for environmental sciences. Besides, it increases expectations that research for the public good should be done by volunteers rather than paid professionals.
To prepare for the new automated future, we need completely new collaboration platforms that help master and utilize high level skills. We'll share our thoughts about it next time.
REFERENCES
David G. Blanchflower, & Andrew J. Oswald (2011).
International Happiness: A New View on the Measure of Performance Academy of Management Perspectives, 25 (1), 6-22
Klaus Schwab. The Fourth Industrial Revolution. World Economic Forum; 2015
Goldsmith, Oliver Scott. "The Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend: A Case Study in Implementation of a Basic Income Guarantee." (2010).
International Happiness: A New View on the Measure of Performance Academy of Management Perspectives, 25 (1), 6-22
Klaus Schwab. The Fourth Industrial Revolution. World Economic Forum; 2015
Goldsmith, Oliver Scott. "The Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend: A Case Study in Implementation of a Basic Income Guarantee." (2010).
Painter, A. (2016). A universal basic income: the answer to poverty, insecurity, and health inequality? BMJ DOI: 10.1136/bmj.i6473
Forget EL. The town with no poverty: using health administration data to revisit outcomes of a Canadian guaranteed annual income field experiment. 2011.
Brougham, D., & Haar, J. (2017). Smart Technology, Artificial Intelligence, Robotics, and Algorithms (STARA): Employees’ perceptions of our future workplace Journal of Management & Organization, 1-19 DOI: 10.1017/jmo.2016.55
Pfeiffer S (2017). The Vision of "Industrie 4.0" in the Making-a Case of Future Told, Tamed, and Traded. Nanoethics, 11 (1), 107-121 PMID: 28435474
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